State model
Current economic conditions
Cards and recession warnings describe the selected quarter.
Economic Phase
Expansion
Economic Strength
Above Normal
Direction
Improving
Weakening From Peak
Minimal
Business Investment
Normal
Labor & Wage Pressure
Low
Profit Squeeze
No
Recession warning
State-model signal categories, not recession probabilities.
Next Quarter
Low
Next 6 Months
Low
Next Year
Low
1
238
12
ML forecast system
Forward-looking paths
Separately fitted from the state-model cards above.
Realized next 4Q
Forecast
50% band
80% band
100%
Historical profit
Historical wage
Realized profit
Realized wage
Profit forecast
Wage forecast
50% bands
80% bands